Called a “spreadsheet psychic” and “number-crunching prodigy,” Nate Silver will inspire and wow us at Information On Demand 2012. As the general session speaker on Wednesday, October 24, Nate will explain how to distinguish real signals from noisy data. He’ll also examine how predictive analytics is used in politics.
Afterwards, attend the book signing at the IOD bookstore for Nate’s latest book: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t. You’ll be able to purchase a copy of this book (at a 20% discount), meet Nate, and have your book signed.
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance and predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Many people – both experts and novices – mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
Join us at IOD for the Wednesday morning general session, Big Future, and learn why succeeding in the future requires that you think differently today.
In Wednesday’s session, top technology thought leaders will discuss the exciting possibilities that lie ahead and how you can stay ahead of your competition by positioning yourself for success. With their insight, you’ll begin to see opportunities instead of challenges and view the possibilities in a different way. You’ll leave the session ready to return to your organization with a new vision for the future.